The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement

By J. Brouwer, Richard Paap, J. Viaene. Social Science Research Network, 2008

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This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced panel data that combine bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries. The results reveal a complementarity between trade and investment and a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depend on the sign of bilateral trade balances. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5% for Poland and 30% for Hungary.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/705b2a34a2e990b9565149cb0befe36c415103d4

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