Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

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Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in long‐term ecological data? (2016, background): “…our study supports the assertion that there is unlikely to be a ‘silver bullet’ that meets this challenge (Dakos et al. 2012a; Lindegren et al. 2012) and that early detection of nonlinear change using variance and autocorrelation as early warnings may be wishful thinking (Ditlevsen & Johnsen 2010).”
Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system (2011, background): “For example, Ditlevsen & Johnsen [16] suggested that the predictive techniques to forecast a forthcoming tipping point [14] are not always reliable.”
The physics of climate variability and climate change (2019, background): “stance, Ditlevsen and Johnsen (2010) analyzed a highresolution ice core record and excluded the possibility of interpreting Dansgaard-Oeschger events as B-tipping by noting the lack of the two early warning signals mentioned above.”