CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU
By C. Mostl, Keshav Amla, J. Hall, P. Liewer, E. D. Jong, R. Colaninno, Astrid Veronig, T. Rollett, M. Temmer, V. Peinhart and 8 more. 2014
148 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008–2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s−1). We track the CMEs to 34.9 ± 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of −26.4 ± 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Φ, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 ± 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 ± 288 km s−1. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 ± 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 ± 50 km s−1. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun–Earth line.
Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/6c86effb839f8c97838f8a97cb110582cb205a68
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In Astronomy and Astrophysics
Citations in the corpus
- ON SUN-TO-EARTH PROPAGATION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (2013, result): “Both the Fβ and HM approximations give propagation angles east of the Sun–Earth line, consistent with previous estimates (Colaninno et al. 2013; Möstl et al. 2014; Shi et al. 2015).”
- Space weather: the solar perspective (2021, background): “…image data facilitated the tracking of CMEs through interplanetary space and with that could unambiguously relate the CME white-light structure to in-situ measurements (see e.g., Möstl et al. 2009, 2014) and moreover, get better insight on how CMEs interact with the ambient solar wind structures.”