Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight

150 citations recorded by the source corpus.

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results (2011, background): “Furthermore, a heterogeneous set of experts, in combination with the Delphi process, has been found to reduce a possible optimism bias resulting from peoples' overconfidence [29,30].”
Predictive effects of structural variation on citation counts (2012, background): “In foresight exercises on identifying future technology, experts’ opinions were found to be overly optimistic with hindsight (Tichy, 2004).”
On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe (2006, background): “…on the basis of a survey of current research activities and car manufacturer predictions, there may be an inherent bias in these estimates: as Tichy (2004) has shown, the best experts in a research field often provide the most optimistic predictions, which are eventually refuted by…”
The future of skills: employment in 2030 (2017, background): “…and challenging individually held beliefs, foresight processes can also combat the types of bias that may creep into long-term, expert-led planning (Tichy, 2004; Goodwin and Wright, 2010; Kahneman, 2011; Ecken et al., 2011; Nemet et al., 2016): overconfidence (overweighting private information and…”