Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

By Nicola Maher, S. McGregor, M. England, Alexander Sen Gupta. 2015

161 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo‐Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co‐occurring El Niño and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 6–12 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer posteruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Niña‐like response in the third SH summer posteruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Niña occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Niña‐like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/6acd55ac98d0442e9a4b152142533e3ebe6a692e

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

1. E. Manzini
2. Nicola Maher
3. Ben Kravitz
4. Jochem Marotzke
5. D. Notz
6. M. Botzet
7. C. Gabriel
8. M. Claussen

In Global and Planetary Change

1. Ben Kravitz
2. E. Manzini
3. Nicola Maher
4. S. Tilmes
5. Jochem Marotzke
6. Douglas G. MacMartin
7. D. Notz
8. M. Botzet

Citations in the corpus

• Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (2015, background): “Following the initial increase 25 in El Niño likelihood, La Niña event probability peaks in the third year post-eruption (Maher et al., 2015).”
• The Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role of Stratospheric Heating (2019, methodology): “An El Niño-like response to sulfate geoengineering and large volcanic eruptions have been found in previous studies (e.g., Khodri et al., 2017; Maher et al., 2015; Trisos et al., 2018).”
• The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability (2019, background): “However, internal variability may itself be influenced by external forcing (e.g., Maher et al., 2015) in ways that are difficult to account for a priori.”