Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

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Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link (2008, background): “4 See also Lahiri et al. (1988), Batchelor and Dua (1996), Bomberger (1996), Giordani and Söderlind (2003), and Boero et al. (2008).”
Combining forecasts – forty years later (2011, methodology): “This decomposition of the combined variance into measures of uncertainty and disagreement is employed in recent studies of survey forecasts in the UK (Boero et al., 2008) and the US (Rich and Tracy, 2010).”