The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups
By M. Mastrandrea, K. Mach, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Ottmar Edenhofer, T. Stocker, Christopher B. Field, K. Ebi, P. Matschoss. 2011
344 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Evaluation and communication of the relative degree of certainty in assessment findings are key cross-cutting issues for the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A goal for the Fifth Assessment Report, which is currently under development, is the application of a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterize findings of the assessment process. A guidance note for authors of the Fifth Assessment Report has been developed that describes this common approach and language, building upon the guidance employed in past Assessment Reports. Here, we introduce the main features of this guidance note, with a focus on how it has been designed for use by author teams. We also provide perspectives on considerations and challenges relevant to the application of this guidance in the contribution of each Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report. Despite the wide spectrum of disciplines encompassed by the three Working Groups, we expect that the framework of the new uncertainties guidance will enable consistent communication of the degree of certainty in their policy-relevant assessment findings.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/686a3d0a72e163d36998518984641206df3b39c7
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In Economics and Econometrics
- Keywan Riahi
- Volker Krey
- David McCollum
- Joeri Rogelj
- Ottmar Edenhofer
- J. Minx
- S. Pachauri
- Valentina Bosetti
In Global and Planetary Change
- Volker Krey
- John R. Porter
- Hermann Held
- Ottmar Edenhofer
- Jens Christian Refsgaard
- Joeri Rogelj
- Valentina Bosetti
- Howard Kunreuther
Citations in the corpus
- Cartography of pathways: A new model for environmental policy assessments (2015, background): “The treatment and transparency of uncertainties have also been improved (Mastrandrea et al., 2011), and the IPCC WG III conducted an interesting multi-stakeholder meeting.4 Yet, many gaps in knowledge still have to be filled by future IPCC assessments if they are to be guided by the PEM idea.”
- Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies (2014, methodology): “Other studies show that the 17 general public has a poor understanding of the energy consumption associated with familiar 18 activities (John D. Sterman and Sweeney, 2007). A national online survey of 505 participants by 19 Attari et al. (2010) revealed that most respondents felt that measures such ”
- Connecting the sustainable development goals by their energy inter-linkages (2018, methodology): “As put forward in Mastrandrea et al (2011), the following language can be used to describe the validity of a finding in the literature: the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (summary terms: ‘limited,’ ‘medium,’ or ‘robust’), and the degree of agreement (summary terms: ‘low,’…”
- Global warming has increased global economic inequality (2019, background): “For these countries, it is “very likely” (27) that historical warming has reduced economic growth and lowered per capita GDP (Fig.”
- The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example (2013, background): “A goal of the AR5 is to apply “a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterise findings of the assessment process” (Mastrandrea et al. 2011).”