Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

By Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis, Thomas K. Lee. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020

207 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/65c24b54efc209c36cb67ae3d9081bdb0c133da5