Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar

By C. Raxworthy, Richard G. Pearson, Nirhy H C Rabibisoa, Andry M Rakotondrazafy, J. Ramanamanjato, A. P. Raselimanana, Sheng-Hai Wu, R. Nussbaum, D. Stone. Global Change Biology, 2008

396 citations recorded by the source corpus.

One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Global and Planetary Change, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/633b9eb6b1c8540f32a182307cb462662a27aa9d

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Citations in the corpus

Upslope migration of Andean trees (2011, neutral): “…that the observed migration rates are in line with the mean upslope range shifts observed for tropical Lepidoptera (1.6 m year)1) (Chen et al., 2009) and reptiles (2.2 m year)1) (Raxworthy et al., 2008) but slower than those observed for tropical amphibians (9.0 m year)1) (Raxworthy et al., 2008).”
Distributional migrations, expansions, and contractions of tropical plant species as revealed in dated herbarium records (2012, background): “However, documented range shifts in tropical species in response to modern climate change remain scarce (Raxworthy et al., 2008; Chen et al., 2009).”
Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being (2017, neutral): “These species have moved uphill from 10 to 51 meters, as climate warmed ( 127 ).”
Impacts of climate change on the amphibians and reptiles of Southeast Asia (2010, background): “Some amphibian species have already been displaced elevationally upwards in the past 30 years (Raxworthy et al. 2008).”
A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change (2011, background): “For example, if a species is restricted to high elevations, adiabatic lapse rates (declining temperature within increasing elevation) may provide a first approximation of the expected rate of loss for a given rate of projected regional warming (cf. Raxworthy et al. 2008; Sekercioglu et al. 2008).”
Contemporary climate change alters the pace and drivers of extinction (2011, background): “…in average elevations, range shifts have also been observed as expansions of upper elevational limits (Hill et al., 2002; Battisti et al., 2006; Raxworthy et al., 2008), changes in species composition (Pounds et al., 1999; Wilson et al., 2005; Moritz et al., 2008), and retraction of lower…”
The performance of protected areas for biodiversity under climate change (2015, background): “Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar.”
Climate, climate change and range boundaries (2010, background): “More local studies provide evidence of upwards shifts on tropical mountains, in Costa Rica, Madagascar and Borneo (Pounds et al., 1999; Raxworthy et al., 2008; Chen et al., 2009), but they are insufficient to draw strong conclusions about the frequencies with which species have shown…”
Patterns of species change in anthropogenically disturbed forests of Madagascar (2010, background): “…areas of high herpetological species richness, or areas of otherwise high conservation interest such as riverbeds and adjacent gallery forests (Jenkins et al., 2003; Paquette et al., 2007), montane areas (Raxworthy et al., 2008; Vences et al., 2002) and dry forest (Glos, 2003; Glos et al., 2008b).”