Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method

By Nauro F. Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli, Luigi Moretti. Social Science Research Network, 2014

169 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration. Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995 and 2004 enlargements, if those countries had not joined the EU. We find large positive effects from EU membership but these differ across countries and over time (they are only negative for Greece). We calculate that without deep economic and political integration, per capita incomes would have been, on average, approximately 12 percent lower.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/6176c6ffe80395d78b545ef8466313ad6c33ebee

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Citations in the corpus

Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit (2018, unknown): “…view is backed by empirical results underscoring that the reduction in trade barriers due to EU membership has increased UK incomes (Crafts 2016; Campos, Coricelli, and Moretti 2014). been documented by several studies (Barrett et al. 2015; Fournier et al. 2015; Bruno et al. 2016; Dhingra,…”
Pooling Multiple Case Studies Using Synthetic Controls: An Application to Minimum Wage Policies (2015, methodology): “Using synthetic controls, Campos et al. (2014) estimate a mean effect of EU integration on GDP, but the authors do not perform statistical inference on either the mean or individual case study estimates. Two papers conduct statistical inference on the mean treatment effect of multiple synthetic cont”