Minimum viable population size: A meta-analysis of 30 years of published estimates

By Lochran W. Traill, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Barry W. Brook. 2007

442 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract We present the first meta-analysis of a key measure in conservation biology: minimum viable population (MVP) size. Our analysis is based on studies published since the early 1970s, and covers 141 sources and 212 species (after filtering 529 sources and 2202 species). By implementing a unique standardization procedure to make reported MVPs comparable, we were able to derive a cross-species frequency distribution of MVP with a median of 4169 individuals (95% CI = 3577–5129). This standardized database provides a reference set of MVPs from which conservation practitioners can generalize the range expected for particular species (or surrogate taxa) of concern when demographic information is lacking. We provide a synthesis of MVP-related research over the past 30 years, and test for ‘rules of thumb’ relating MVP to extinction vulnerability using well-known threat correlates such as body mass and range decline. We find little support for any plausible ecological and life history predictors of MVP, even though correlates explain >50% of the variation in IUCN threat status. We conclude that a species’ or population’s MVP is context-specific, and there are no simple short-cuts to its derivation. However, our findings are consistent with biological theory and MVPs derived from abundance time series in that the MVP for most species will exceed a few thousand individuals.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/611b1d1e634f85d03423c46886a1026c331c484c

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Citations in the corpus

Assisted Colonization: A Question of Focal Units and Recipient Localities (2011, unknown): “Based on a meta-analysis of published studies, Traill et al. (2007) suggest a minimum of 1,650–100,000 individuals for viable population sizes of insects in order to gain a persistence probability of 99% within a time frame of 40 generations.”
Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world (2010, unknown): “However, variation arises in part from the complexity, biological reality and type of PVA used, and median confidence intervals from meta-analysis of standardised MVPs still provide reasonable guidance on the most likely targets that will be required (e.g., 3577–5129, 95% CI; Traill et al., 2007).”
Science, Policy, and Species at Risk in Canada (2010, background): “…from the scientific literature using minimum viable populations (which are widely viewed as the minimum unit for species conservation; see, e.g., Traill et al. 2007) would, following IUCN criteria, characterize survival as a greater than 90% chance of species persistence for at least 100 years.”
By the Numbers: How is Recovery Defined by the US Endangered Species Act? (2012, background): “Plant species fared even worse, with 90% of 324 species having objectives below the suggested minimum of 15,992 individuals (Traill et al. 2007).”
The role of species traits in the establishment success of exotic birds (2009, background): “This last approach was developed from the small population paradigm in conservation biology, and a realization that nearly all releases of exotic birds involve numbers that are well below calculated minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates, which have been recently estimated consistently to h”
The more you introduce the more you get: the role of colonization pressure and propagule pressure in invasion ecology (2009, background): “Propagule pressure is clearly related to the concept of minimum viable population size in conservation biology (Terborgh & Winter, 1980; Traill et al., 2007) and has similar practical consequences.”
Translating conservation genetics into management: Pan-European minimum requirements for dynamic conservation units of forest tree genetic diversity (2013, methodology): “MVP also depends on context-specific factors (Traill et al., 2007).”
Genetics in conservation management: Revised recommendations for the 50/500 rules, Red List criteria and population viability analyses (2014, methodology): “We suggest the standardised 99% probability of persistence for 40 generations used in the Traill et al. (2007) meta-analysis be routinely reported, even if other scales are also considered.”
The compadre Plant Matrix Database: an open online repository for plant demography (2015, background): “The power of COMPADRE ’ s extensive, comprehensive information will also improve the estimation of extinction risk based on non-demographic characteristics, which can be used to inform the management of threatened and endangered species (Traill, Bradshaw & Brook 2007; Sodhi et al. 2008).”