Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?

By Wei‐Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette. 2005

173 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown at a faster-than-exponential rate which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast-growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/6110ad43a3781732a684e0b305ed11335aab09c8

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model (2011, background): “ce in real time) in various kinds of markets such as the 2006-2008 oil bubble [5], the Chinese index bubble in 2009 [6], the real estate market in Las Vegas [7], the U.K. and U.S. real estate bubbles [8, 9], the Nikkei index anti-bubble in 1990-1998 [10] and the S&P 500 index anti-bubble in 2000”
Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese Stock Market Bubbles (2009, unknown): “…above, subsequent successes include the predictions of the peak in mid-2004 of the real-estate bubble in the UK by Zhou and Sornette (2003a), of the peak in mid-2006 of the US housing bubble by Zhou and Sornette(2006b) and of the peak in July 2008 of the global oil bubble by Sornette et al. (2009).”