Discounting an uncertain future

By Christian Gollier. 2002

346 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5e4d5e31b9256fc6c60c3a90e352742f8b17a6a5

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Citations in the corpus

Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis (2008, background): “But perhaps the most prominent rationale has at its heart uncertainty about future interest rates [Weitzman (122, 123)] or the state of the economy [Gollier (124)].”
Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule (2010, methodology): “This paper is mostly non-technical, in contrast to Gollier (2009). This companion paper also shows that the decreasing nature of the term structure obtained in this framework depends heavily upon the assumption that shocks are permanent.”
Targets for global climate policy: an overview (2013, background): “For example, Gollier (2002a, 2002b), Gollier and Weitzman (2010) and Weitzman (2001) show that if there is uncertainty about the pure rate of time preference or future economic growth, then the certainty-equivalent consumption discount rate is not constant, but rather falls over time.”
Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it (2005, background): “…the case for DDRs is even more compelling and much of the recent debate concerning DDRs has centred upon the analysis of uncertainty concerning future states of the world, in particular the social rate of return to capital, r, (e.g. Weitzman 1998), and growth, g (e.g. Gollier 2002a, b, 2004b).”
Uncertainty in Environmental Economics (2007, background): “Related discussions are in Gollier (2001, 2002). work in opposite directions, so their net effect tends to be model-specific.”
The Long-Run Discount Rate Controversy (2014, background): “This extension of the Ramsey formula to an uncertain future (obtained by Gollier 2002) is intuitive. It tells us that the Ramsey rule should be adapted to an uncertain future by reducing the expected growth rate by half the product of the degree of prudence 1   and the annualized variance 2 / t t ”
The consumption-based determinants of the term structure of discount rates (2007, neutral): “Gollier [15,16] characterized the conditions on preferences that imply a monotone yield curve under the assumption of a stationary Brownian motion.”
Valuing the future: recent advances in social discounting (2003, background): “The contribution of Gollier (2002a, 2002b) is to treat uncertainty about the future of the economy in general.”
Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth (2008, background): “We consider a standard utilitarian welfare function W = t=0 e −δt Eu(c t ).”
Limits to CBA in UK and European environmental policy: retrospects and future prospects (2007, background): “For Weitzman (1989) uncertainty about future interest rates and for Gollier (2002) uncertainty about the macroeconomic state of the economy point towards DDR.”
Assessing the economic viability of alternative water resources in water-scarce regions: Combining economic valuation, cost-benefit analysis and discounting (2010, neutral): “Recently Groom et al. (2007), Hepburn et al.”
Priority Threat Management for biodiversity conservation: A handbook (2018, background): “%) may be more appropriate for intergenerational projects (Gollier, 2002), while commercial projects typically employ much higher rates (c. 10%+).”
The marginal damage costs of carbon-dioxide emissions’ (2005, background): “should fall over time ( Gollier, 2002a, b; Weitzman, 1998).”