Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach
By Nima Khakzad, Faisal I. Khan, Paul Amyotte. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012
367 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile.
Subfields: Radiological and Ultrasound Technology, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Statistics and Probability
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5cd73cb445ceb1673a01cbe2273edb541c03ff0f
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In Radiological and Ultrasound Technology
In Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
In Statistics and Probability
Citations in the corpus
- The future of risk assessment (2018, methodology): “In [96], Bayes theorem was combined with a Bow-Tie (BT) model E.”
- Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review (2019, methodology): “Khakzad et al. (2012) used Bayes’ theory with bow-tie (BT) model for dynamic risk assessment.”