ENSO Prediction with Markov Models: The Impact of Sea Level

By Y. Xue, A. Leetmaa, M. Ji. 2000

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A Hierarchy of Data-Based ENSO Models (2005, background): “Both Johnson et al. (2000b) and Xue et al. (2000) obtained seasonally varying Markov transition matrices for each calendar month.”
The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator (2005, methodology): “ Xue et al. [2000] and Clarke and van Gorder [2003] present evidence that including seasonality improves the forecast skill of simple models that use upper ocean heat content.”
Comparison of Some Statistical Methods of Probabilistic Forecasting of ENSO. (2002, background): “…Barnett et al. 1988; Xu and von Storch 1990; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992; Keppenne and Ghil 1992; Penland and Magorian 1993; van den Dool 1994; Xue et al. 1994, 2000; Penland and Sardeshmukh 1995; Knaff and Landsea 1997; Tangang et al. 1997, 1998a,b; Berliner et al. 2000; Landman and Mason…”
Multimodel Ensemble ENSO Prediction with CCSM and CFS (2009, methodology): “Here we briefly make comparisons of the correlation skill scores among the CGCM forecasts (i.e., CFS, CCSM, and the multimodel) with a readily available operational statistical model (Markov; Xue et al. 2000).”