Gravitationally lensed quasars and supernovae in future wide-field optical imaging surveys

By M. Oguri, P. J. M. Naoj, KIPACStanford, Ucsb. 2010

378 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Cadenced optical imaging surveys in the next decade will be capable of detecting time-varying galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in large numbers, increasing the size of the statistically well-defined samples of multiply-imaged quasars by two orders of magnitude, and discovering the first strongly-lensed supernovae. We carry out a detailed calculation of the likely yields of several planned surveys, using realistic distributions for the lens and source properties and taking magnification bias and image configuration detectability into account. We find that upcoming wide-field synoptic surveys should detect several thousand lensed quasars. In particular, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) should find more than some 8000 lensed quasars, some 3000 of which will have well-measured time delays. The LSST should also find some 130 lensed supernovae during the 10-year survey duration, which is compared with � 15 lensed supernovae predicted to be found by a deep, space-based supernova survey done by the Joint Dark Energy Mission (JDEM). We compute the quad fraction in each survey, predicting it to be � 15% for the lensed quasars and � 30% for the lensed supernovae. Generating a mock catalogue of around 1500 well-observed double-image lenses, as could be derived from the LSST survey, we compute the available precision on the Hubble constant and the dark energy equation parameters for the time delay distance experiment (assuming priors from Planck): the predicted marginalised 68% confidence intervals are σ(w0) = 0.15, σ(wa) = 0.41, and σ(h) = 0.017. While this is encouraging in the sense that these uncertainties are only 50% larger than those predicted for a space-based type-Ia supernova sample, we show how the dark energy figure of merit degrades with decreasing knowledge of the the lens mass distribution.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/572e7d40c4ae54eb63fdc7e93295765db71ed6b7

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Astronomy and Astrophysics

Citations in the corpus

LSST: From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products (2008, background): “The natural timescale (many months to years) is well matched to the LSST survey (Oguri & Marshall 2010).”
H0LiCOW - IV. Lens mass model of HE 0435-1223 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance for cosmology (2016, background): “With hundreds of new lensed AGN expected to be discovered in current and future wide-field imaging surveys (Oguri & Marshall 2010), we expect time-delay cosmography to provide competitive cosmological constraints throughout the next decade.”
H0LiCOW – XIII. A 2.4 per cent measurement of H0 from lensed quasars: 5.3σ tension between early- and late-Universe probes (2019, background): “While the prospect of discovering more lensed SNe in future imaging surveys and measuring their time delays is promising (e.g. Oguri & Marshall 2010; Goldstein & Nugent 2017; Goldstein et al. 2018; Huber et al. 2019; Wojtak, Hjorth & Gall 2019), lensed quasars have generally been used to constrain…”
Gravitational lensing of gravitational waves: A statistical perspective (2018, background): “Also, this choice ensures the detection of the first lensed image to arrive, since the third brightest image is generally expected to arrive first (Oguri & Marshall 2010).”
TDCOSMO IV: Hierarchical time-delay cosmography -- joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles (2020, methodology): “…deep, wide-field surveys (such as those enabled by Vera Rubin Observatory, Euclid and the Nancy Grace Roman Observatory) will discover many thousands of lenses of which several hundred will have accurate time delay measurements (see e.g., Oguri & Marshall 2010; Collett 2015; Huber et al. 2019).”
H0LiCOW – I. H0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's wellspring: program overview (2016, background): “…Suprime-Cam Survey (e.g., Chan et al. 2016), the Kilo-Degree Survey (e.g., Napolitano et al. 2015), Euclid and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (Oguri & Marshall 2010), and continuous advances in high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy in the current and next generation of telescopes for…”
CMU DeepLens: deep learning for automatic image-based galaxy–galaxy strong lens finding (2017, methodology): “For these simulations, we use a population of elliptical lens galaxies, as they are expected to dominate the population of galaxy-scale strong lenses (Oguri & Marshall 2010).”
THE POPULATION OF GALAXY–GALAXY STRONG LENSES IN FORTHCOMING OPTICAL IMAGING SURVEYS (2015, methodology): “…work has forecast the number of lensed point sources likely to be discovered in spectroscopic surveys (Serjeant 2014) and in photometric surveys (Oguri & Marshall 2010), however making forecasts for lenses with extended background sources requires one to move beyond analytic analyses due to…”
Mining for Dark Matter Substructure: Inferring Subhalo Population Properties from Strong Lenses with Machine Learning (2019, background): “This approach scales well to the expected large number of lenses expected in upcoming surveys (Oguri & Marshall 2010; Treu 2010; Collett 2015).”
Gravitational probes of dark matter physics (2017, background): “Hundreds to thousands of quadruply lensed AGN are expected to be discovered, with commensurate numbers of Einstein ring systems [616].”
H0LiCOW - V. New COSMOGRAIL time delays of HE 0435-1223: H0 to 3.8 per cent precision from strong lensing in a flat ΛCDM model (2016, background): “Meanwhile, current and planned wide field imaging surveys such as DES, KiDS, HSC, LSST, Euclid and WFIRST, should discover hundreds of new gravitational lens systems suitable for time-delay cosmography (Oguri & Marshall 2010).”
Time delay cosmography (2016, background): “…sample size it will be important to seize any new opportunity to carry out additional blind tests, e.g., by predicting time delays of lens quasars before measuring them, and by actively searching for multiply imaged supernovae in galaxy-scale lenses (Oguri and Marshall 2010; Quimby et al. 2014).”
H0LiCOW – IX. Cosmographic analysis of the doubly imaged quasar SDSS 1206+4332 and a new measurement of the Hubble constant (2018, background): “…increased recently and is approaching the desired number (Schechter et al. 2017; Lin et al. 2017; Jacobs et al. 2017; Ostrovski et al. 2017; Agnello et al. 2018; Lemon et al. 2018; Treu et al. 2018), quads only represent ∼ 1/6 of all lensed quasars in the sky (Oguri & Marshall 2010; Collett 2015).”