COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
By Andrea Remuzzi, Giuseppe Remuzzi. The Lancet, 2020
2,732 citations recorded by the source corpus.
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3–4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.
Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation, Oncology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/54f653ece199f2366d66929cdef66037eabcda4d
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Citations in the corpus
- Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy (2020, background): “world: a report from WHO dated March 4, 2020 documented a grand total of 93090 conrmed cases spanning 77 dierent countries worldwide [4]. Italy has since become the most hit country outside of Asia [5]. After the rst indigenous case was conrmed on February 21, 2020, in the Lodi province (Lombardy, n”
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- Closure of Universities Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact on Education and Mental Health of Students and Academic Staff (2020, background): “Unfortunately, this reduction was not the case in other parts of the world, including Iran, Italy, the US, and other European countries [8].”
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