Climate Change and Range Shifts in Two Insect Defoliators: Gypsy Moth and Nun Moth - a Model Study

By H. Vanhanen, T. Veteli, Sonja Päivinen, Seppo Kellomäki, P. Niemelä. 2007

159 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Environmental factors influenced by global climate change determine the distribution ranges of organisms. Especially ectothermic animals are expected to shift their distribution ranges northwards in the next hundred years or so. In this study simulations made with CLIMEXmodelling software were used to predict the future distribution ranges of two Central European serious forest pest species: the nun moth (Lymantria monacha L. (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)) and the gypsy moth (L. dispar L). The software calculates an ecoclimatic index based on the life cycle requirements of a species and thus represents the probability of a viable population to exist at a certain location. Three different climate warming scenarios were considered: temperature increase of 1.4, 3.6 and 5.8°C. Simulations generated with the current climate conditions corresponded well to the current distributions of the species. The climate warming scenarios shifted the northern boundary of the distribution for both of these species north by c. a. 500–700 km. Also the southern edge of the ranges retracted northwards by 100–900 km. The results of this study are in agreement with the results of empirical studies on other species. Being serious pest species, these species pose a potential threat to silviculture and therefore, have to be considered in the planning of forest management practices.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/54aeb9d0d84966e6475d302c810c8d438857f6c5

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Citations in the corpus

The effect of temperature and humidity changes on insects development their impact on forest ecosystems in the expected climate change (2013, background): “, regarding temperature increase and selected environmental elements, has been analysed in Finland (Virtanen et al. 1996).”
Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause (2011, background): “2007), including major pest species that can have dramatic effects on forest ecosystems (Carroll et al. 2003; Hagen et al. 2007; Kurz et al. 2008; Vanhanen et al. 2007).”
Using UAV-Based Photogrammetry and Hyperspectral Imaging for Mapping Bark Beetle Damage at Tree-Level (2015, background): “This climate-driven phenomenon has already been evident with pine sawflies [2,3], moths [4,5] and bark beetles [6,7].”
Natural enemies and environmental factors affecting the population dynamics of the gypsy moth (2013, methodology): “A modelling study (Vanhanen et al. 2007) indicated a shift in the distribution boundaries of the gypsy moth and the nun moth (Lymantria monacha) in Central Europe; in this model, the northern boundary will shift ca. 500–700 km to the north, and the southern boundary will shift ca. 100–900 km to the…”