Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa

By Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, S. Satyanath, J. Dykema, David B. Lobell. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009

1,057 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: General Health Professions, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5254405a0d1000b57f32a2f6642d105e0b196caf

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Citations in the corpus

Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation (2014, positive): “Pessimists predict an increased frequency and severity of armed conﬂicts as global warming progresses (Burke et al., 2009), while others view the conﬂict potential of climate change as small or overshadowed by more traditional determinants of violent conﬂict (see Buhaug, 2010; Bernauer et al.,…”
Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth (2020, background): “…linked to complex social impacts, such as crime, strife, conflict, reduced educational attainment, morbidity, and reduced labor productivity (Burke et al. 2009, Kelley et al. 2015, Schleussner et al. 2016, Mora et al. 2017a, Randell & Gray 2019), both now and in the future (Jendritzky &…”
Environmental changes and violent conflict (2012, background): “Similarly, Burke et al (2009) find that temperature increases in Africa between 1981 and 2002 have a significantly positive effect on civil war onset.”
Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition. (2017, background): “Climate change may exacerbate social exclusion by increasing competition for scarce natural resources and forcing mass migration (9), factors that played important roles over the past few decades in severely restricting food access during civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East (26”
The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa (2012, background): “Since the works by Miguel et al. (2004), Burke et al. (2009) and Hsiang et al. (2011), we cannot exclude thatwe her affects conflict and, hence, the inclusion of the conflict variable may wipe out some of the explanatory power of our weather variables.”
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States (2016, positive): “The economics literature has documented substantial negative effects of global warming on economic growth in developing economies (e.g., Gallup, Sachs and Mellinger (1999), Nordhaus (2006), Burke et al. (2009), Dell, Jones and Olken (2012)).”
Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks? (2014, positive): “Combining these estimates with temperature projections suggests a 54% increase in the likelihood of armed conflict by 2030 (Burke et al. 2009).”
Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya’s drylands (2012, background): “Burke et al. (2009) found correlations between changes in temperature or high levels of variability in rainfall and the likelihood of violent conflict events in Africa.”