Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
By Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian. 2012
338 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/51451402d8317f1654735ab2373c5dd4233a8cfc
How researchers see this paper
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In Economics and Econometrics
- Lutz Kilian
- George Filis
- Christiane Baumeister
- Stavros Degiannakis *
- Vipin Arora
- Robert J. Vigfusson
- Daniel Murphy
- Ron Alquist
In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Lutz Kilian
- George Filis
- Christiane Baumeister
- Stavros Degiannakis *
- Robert J. Vigfusson
- Vipin Arora
- Daniel Murphy
- Ron Alquist
Citations in the corpus
- Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 (2015, neutral): “1 For details on the definition and construction of the data the reader is referred to Baumeister and Kilian (2012). 2 Real-time data constraints refer to the fact that a forecaster generating a forecast as of today must operate subject to the constraint that the most recent observations of many tim”
- Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The Midas Touch at Work (2015, methodology): “…nominal refiners’ acquisition cost of imported crude oil, the U.S. consumer price index for all urban consumers, and the proxy for global crude oil inventories are taken from the real-time database developed by Baumeister and Kilian (2012) which contains vintages from January 1991 to March 2013.”
- Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence (2018, background): “(2014), Manescu and Van Robays (2014), Baumeister and Kilian (2012).”
- What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices (2014, methodology): “9 Given the small magnitude of the inflation rate compared with fluctuations in the nominal price of oil over the horizons of interest, this approximation is adequate, as shown in Baumeister and Kilian (2012).”
- Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity (2020, result): “See section 3.3 for details.”
- Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach (2015, methodology): “This result holds even after taking account of real-time data constraints (see, e.g., Baumeister and Kilian 2012, 2014a; Baumeister, Kilian, and Zhou 2013).1 There is no methodology available in the literature that does well at all horizons for which the EIA produces oil price forecasts, however.”
- Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting (2017, background): “Global crude oil export can be viewed as an additional measure of global 7Consistent with the prior literature (c.f. Kilian, 2010, Baumeister and Kilian, 2012, 2015; Chatrath et al., 2016), for daily and weekly data, we only keep the observations for each Friday.”