An Introduction to the Ecb's Survey of Professional Forecasters
By J. Á. Garcia. Social Science Research Network, 2003
165 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a quarterly survey of euro area key macroeconomic variables conducted by the European Central Bank since 1999. Its purpose is to provide the necessary information for anyone interested in analysing or reporting the survey results. First, its motivations, the panel composition and the structure of the questionnaire are thoroughly explained. The results of the first 18 survey rounds for the three variables covered ? HICP inflation, the real GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate ? for the different horizons are then analysed in detail, including the information content of the uncertainty surrounding those forecast on the basis of the reported probability distributions for each of the variables and horizons. Finally, a comparison to other similar surveys, both for the euro area and the US economy, is also provided.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4f39af3186b8901250d4b3b0d6b635255b2751c8
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In Economics and Econometrics
- G. Kenny
- V. Genre
- Aidan Meyler
- Colette Nataf
- T. Tomlinson
- Yaron Shlomi
- Allan G. Timmermann
- Thomas S. Wallsten
In Finance
- G. Kenny
- V. Genre
- Aidan Meyler
- Allan G. Timmermann
- Massimo Guidolin
- Barbara Rossi
- Nicolas Huck
- Erik Hjalmarsson
Citations in the corpus
- The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) - A Review After Eight Years' Experience (2007, background): “(1988), Giordani and Söderlind (2003) and D’Amico and Orphanides (2006)).”
- Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average? (2013, methodology): “The SPF forecasts are described in detail in previous studies such as Bowles et al. (2007) and Garcia (2003).”
- Efficiently encoding and modeling subjective probability distributions for quantitative variables. (2016, background): “As another example, both the European Central Bank (ECB; e.g., Bowles et al., 2007; Garcia, 2003) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Croushore, 1993) regularly survey experts to obtain their probabilistic forecasts of various economic indicator variables.”