The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
By P. Walker, C. Whittaker, O. Watson, M. Baguelin, P. Winskill, A. Hamlet, Bimandra A. Djafaara, Z. Cucunubá, D. Olivera Mesa, W. Green and 39 more. Science, 2020
784 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Global prospects for COVID-19 control Lower-income countries have recognized the potential impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from observing ongoing epidemics. Many have intervened quickly and early with measures to slow viral transmission, which may partly explain the low rates observed so far in these countries. Walker et al. calibrated a global model with country-specific data (see the Perspective by Metcalf et al.). Despite the potentially protective effects of younger demographics, the closer intergenerational contact, limitations on health care facilities, and frequency of comorbidities in lower-income countries require sustained nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to avoid overwhelming health care capacity. As a result of strict NPIs, the protective effects of immunity will be reduced, and it will be important to improve testing capacity. Ensuring equitable provision of oxygen and—when they are ready—pharmaceutical interventions should be a global priority. Science, this issue p. 413; see also p. 368 Modeling reveals differences in the unfolding COVID-19 epidemics and responses to their control among countries with different income levels. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4f2e1c57a649d91d0b3322bc76c3ae8cdebc08a3
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Citations in the corpus
- Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 (2020, background): “other factors, such as their duration and timing (32), periodicity and adherence (33, 34), and successful containment (35).”
- Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions (2020, neutral): “Numerous compartmental models have been developed or repurposed: Walker et al. (2020) used an age-structured stochastic SEIR model to determine the global impact of COVID-19 and the effect of various social distancing interventions to control…”
- Global Challenges to Public Health Care Systems during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review of Pandemic Measures and Problems (2022, background): “Most health care units conducted the workflow in separate areas, usually located near hospitals, and only patients who presented negative C19 tests were admitted [96] and remained in isolated areas for up to 72 h (Figure 2).”