The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions

By Lyle Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville A. Satopaa, Philip Tetlock, J. Baron. 2012

93 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Prompting & Reasoning

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In Prompting & Reasoning

1. Percy Liang
2. Tatsunori B. Hashimoto
3. Owain Evans

Citations in the corpus

• When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts (2017, background): “[16] Lyle Ungar, Barb Mellors, Ville Satopää, Jon Baron, Phil Tetlock, Jaime Ramos, and Sam Swift.”
• Unifying Human and Statistical Evaluation for Natural Language Generation (2019, background): “However, the wisdom of the crowds (Surowiecki, 2004; Ungar et al., 2012) suggests that pooling together the judgments of many humans can often produce surprisingly reliable estimates of real-world probabilities such as p ref ( y | x ) , even if no individual human is particularly reliable.”