On the ROC score of probability forecasts

By V. Kharin, F. Zwiers. 2003

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Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts in the North American Multimodel Ensemble: A Baseline Skill Assessment (2016, background): “Even forecasts in the near-normal tercile, a notoriously difficult target (van den Dool and Toth 1991; Kharin and Zwiers 2003), earn a BSS of 0.23 at lead 1.”
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting — II. Calibration and combination (2005, background): “…1973) is a signal-detection curve plotting the hit rate against the false alarm rate for a specific event over a range of probability decision thresholds (Mason and Graham, 1999; Kharin and Zwiers, 2003b) where a separate contingency table has been determined for every probability threshold.”
Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2 (2013, background): “For more detail on probabilistic ROC score please refer Kharin and Zwiers (2003). The curve for HR and FAR for all 10 probability thresholds for 1st to 4th pentad lead forecast and the corresponding AUC are plotted in Fig.”