Heuristics and Biases: Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
By Max Henrion, Baruch Fischhoff. 2002
280 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Global and Planetary Change, History and Philosophy of Science, Radiation
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4a294c36702b7d8130e1ae8e992fb493c3e61c7e
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In Global and Planetary Change
In History and Philosophy of Science
In Radiation
Citations in the corpus
- Is psychology suffering from a replication crisis? What does "failure to replicate" really mean? (2015, background): “Amazingly, Henrion and Fischoff (1986) show that estimates of physical constants such as the speed of light changed throughout the 20th century.”
- Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community (2015, background): “…reasoning, especially given that the scientific community has developed various regimes of dealing with uncertainty, including quantifying it (e.g., Henrion and Fischhoff, 1986) and providing guidelines for how best to communicate it (Budescu et al., 2011; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate…”
- Heuristics, learning and the business angel investment decision-making process (2015, background): “…high level of domain specific expertise, such as the angel investment decision process, that may or may not be overridden by deliberate judgements (Gilovich et al. 2002, 4–5; Dawes et al. 2002; De Bondt and Thaler 2002; Fischhoff 2002; Henrion and Fischhoff 2002; Koehler et al. 2002; Tetlock 2002).”
- Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models (2004, background): “A similar conceptual error in experimental sciences has been documented by Henrion and Fischhoff (1986). In computational sciences the issue might be at least as acute.”
- Sensitivity Analysis as an Ingredient of Modeling (2000, background): “In experimental physics, overconfidence in the treatment of measurement error, and underestimation of uncertainty, has been discussed among others by Henrion and Fischhoff (1986).”
- Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty. (2007, background): “Henrion and Fischhoff (1986) revisited the issue of overconfidence and noted that, if these measurements were well calibrated, one would expect about 70% of them would enclose the true value.”
- How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process (2011, background): “Overconfidence is common among naïve as well as expert decision makers (Henrion and Fischhoff, 1986; Griffin and Tversky, 1992; McKenzie et al., 2008).”
- Risk and ethics in biological control (2005, background): “Third, expert judgment can help to estimate uncertainties in some cases (e.g., Evans et al., 1994a,b; Lackey, 1997), but “must be used with caution because experts are often overconWdent” (Wilson and Shlyakhter, 1997; see also Henrion and FischoV, 1986; Morgan and Henrion, 1990; Cooke, 1991).”