Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method

By Jiahai Yuan, Xinying Li, Chuanbo Xu, Changhong Zhao, Yuanxin Liu. Energy, 2019

129 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Coal is an irreplaceable part of the world energy structure and the condition will not be changed in the near future. Under the Belt and Road initiative, more and more Chinese energy enterprises are planning to invest in coal-fired power plant (CFPP) abroad. However, there are multiple potential risks in investing in CFPP overseas. So, assessing the risk level can help the investors avoid too risky countries and at the same time facilitate the government to take measures to reduce the potential risks to attract more investors. To reasonably assess overseas investment risk of CFPP in countries along the Belt and Road initiative, this paper establishes an evaluation criteria system from eight dimensions which consists of a total of 39 criteria. Then, these criteria weights are determined through a combined analytic network process-Entropy method. Furthermore, considering the psychological characteristics of decision-makers, a TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for Interactive Multi-criteria Decision Making) approach is used to rank the overall risk level of CFPP investment for 23 nations. The findings indicate that the criterion of economic foundation owns the largest weight. Moreover, among these evaluated nations, Singapore have the lowest risk for China’s CFPP investment, followed by New Zealand and Thailand.

Subfields: Control and Systems Engineering, Management Science and Operations Research, Strategy and Management

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/460e177c411b1b50ba84c5120891e7617bfb041c