Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
By Julien Riou, Christian L. Althaus. bioRxiv, 2020
1,130 citations recorded by the source corpus.
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4—3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.
Subfields: Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/45c47f14c69afdbbb01998a908f04a1351a33677
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Epidemiology
In Infectious Diseases
In Modeling and Simulation
- George O. Mohler
- Martin B. Short
- Andrea L. Bertozzi
- Chris P. Jewell
- Jun Zheng
- Thomas Laurent
- José Antonio Carrillo
- José L. Rodrigo
Citations in the corpus
- Deep learning-based model for detecting 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia on high-resolution computed tomography: a prospective study (2020, methodology): “47.[23-26] It could be inferred that before radiologists fulfilling the demands of existing 305 patients, newly infected cases would appear, and the overall burden of radiologists is more 306 overwhelming like a growing snowball.”
- SARS-CoV-2: an Emerging Coronavirus that Causes a Global Threat (2020, background): “It is clear now that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by human-to-human despite the majority of the early cases had contact history with the Huanan Seafood market [11,18,28].”