The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

By Ò. Jordà, K. Knoll, D. Kuvshinov, M. Schularick, Alan M. Taylor. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2017

558 citations recorded by the source corpus.

What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/445ae502149d118d34f3bfebf359ebda0c0b3b57

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Citations in the corpus

Public Debt and Low Interest Rates (2019, unknown): “4 Two major datasets are those put together by Shiller (1992 and updates) for the United States since 1871, and by Jordà et al. (2017) for 16 countries since 1870.”
Housing prices and wealth inequality in Western Europe (2019, methodology): “Following from Jord (cid:1) a et al. (2017), we focus on three types of capital investment for the ‘ r ’ component of Piketty ’ s hypothesis: stocks, (government) bonds and real estate.”
Global trends in interest rates (2018, methodology): “Our data come from the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which is described in Jordà et al. (2017b).(20) In particular, we use annual data from seven advanced (20)We are very grateful to Oscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor for making their data publicly available.”
Investing for long-term value creation (2019, background): “Jordà et al. (2017) find a long-term average return on equity of about 7% in a cross-country study.”
Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949–2016 (2018, methodology): “In contrast to the observed 15 Piketty and Saez (2003) include salaries and wages, small business and farm income, partnership and fiduciary income, dividends, interest, rents, royalties, and other small items reported as other income.”
A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model (2020, unknown): “Sources: Gaspar and Gopinath (2020), Jordà et al. (2019), and IMF staff calculations.”