Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time

By Máximo Camacho, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Pilar Poncela. International Journal of Forecasting, 2018

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We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as ragged edges and mixed frequencies. We examine the theoretical benefits of this extension and corroborate the results through several MonteCarlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability to compute real-time inferences of the US business cycle.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/42f6b240b229f0329a76444bcc226fa3b9b4bfb1