Is There a European Business Cycle?

By Michael J. Artis. Social Science Research Network, 2003

184 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The paper uses quarterly GDP data for some 30 years up to and including 2001, to examine the identity and development of the European business cycle. Cycles are identified by using a band-pass filter version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter and affiliations are examined using clustering techniques and classical multidimensional scaling applied to cross-correlations and other measures of cyclical sympathy. Twenty-three (23) countries are examined, of which 15 are European. The sample is divided into three 10-year periods to examine changes in affiliation. The overall verdict is that it is quite hard to discern a homogenous or developing “European cycle” with these data. Put loosely, globalization may be proceeding as fast as Europeanization.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/415804ba8f5173fa9df185c7aa9492ecbb4d4e11

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Citations in the corpus

Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge: a critical survey of empirical research (2008, unknown): “This methodology is relatively less established for comparing business cycles across countries, although Artis, Krolzig and Torro (2004) implement this method. 13 Belo (2001) also applies Spearman rank correlations. Camacho et al. (2005) use the simple average of various measures (including those of”
Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe? (2007, methodology): “A pioneer study using this technique is Artis and Zhang (1998), who apply clustering to a set of 18 OECD countries and study their affiliations with Germany on the base of six criteria (correlation in business cycle, volatility in exchange rate, correlation in interest rate cycle, trade, inflation a”
A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know - and who cares? (2004, background): “…shocks as a com- plement to structural VAR models.4 The authors suggest two possible ways to include monetary shocks – real interest rates, following Artis (2003), or real effective exchange rate, in line with Clarida and Gali (1994) – to the structural VAR model of the previous variables…”
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles (2005, methodology): “Using dynamic factor models, Kose, Otrok, Whiteman (2003), Canova, Ciccarelli, and Ortega (2003), and Artis (2003) find that while business cycles in European countries do display comovement, the source is not distinctly European, but rather, worldwide.”