A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries

By Lutz Kilian. 2008

388 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/40844c66ad9fd21878a50781f63587857d11589a

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Citations in the corpus

OIL PRICE SHOCKS, SYSTEMATIC MONETARY POLICY, AND THE “GREAT MODERATION” (2009, background): “However, others have argued that since 1973—when the Middle East countries became the dominant supplier of crude petroleum—oil prices have become increasingly responsive to demand conditions [Barsky and Kilian (2002); Kilian (2008a, 2008b)].”
Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shock on Stock Market in China: A Combination Analysis Based on SVAR Model and NARDL Model (2017, background): “On the other hand, oil production reduction in Saudi Arabian countries has not greatly increased in recent years (Hamilton 2009), making it a rather weak predictive power for oil price (Kilian 2008).”
Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach (2019, methodology): “Unlike other studies that employed Philips Curve to determine asymmetries, Killian (2008) utilized counterfactual simulations for the G7 countries and confirmed that homogeneity cannot be ruled out.”
What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies (2012, neutral): “The last shock, interpreted in Kilian (2009) as a precautionary oil-specific demand shock (ultimately driven by expectations about future oil supply shortfalls), triggers an immediate and sharp increase in the real price of oil (normalized to increase by 10 percent).”
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets (2011, neutral): “However, Kilian (2008a) argues that this measure of oil price shocks does not necessarily filter out oil price changes due to exogenous political events or wars because oil price shocks may be demand-driven.5 Furthermore, nominal oil price shocks do not mean that there are corresponding real oil…”
Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis (2018, background): “Kilian (2008) showed that t ere is no evidence that the 1973-1974 and 2002-2003 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any G-7 country; on the other hand, the 1978-1979, 1980, and 1990-1991 shock contributed to lower growth in at least some G-7 countries.”
Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models (2016, result): “This is in consistency with Kilian (2008), who found that oil supply shocks have little systematic predictive power for changes in the oil prices.”
Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs (2011, background): “Kilian (2008) estimated the effects of exogenous shocks to global oil production on inflation and real output in G-7 countries, and claimed that an exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth.”