Will climate change promote future invasions?

By C. Bellard, Wilfried Thuiller, Boris Leroy, P. Genovesi, M. Bakkenes, F. Courchamp. Global Change Biology, 2013

653 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3f4401f0b0204743627453c010e706d2e11fe15f

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Citations in the corpus

Invasive alien species on islands: impacts, distribution, interactions and management (2017, background): “The threats of IASs and climate change are predicted generally to interact positively (Bellard et al. 2013).”
Present and future distribution of three aquatic plants taxa across the world: decrease in native and increase in invasive ranges (2017, background): “…d’Histoire Naturelle, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Université de Caen Basse-Normandie, CNRS, IRD, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France have impacts on biological invasions, although the strength and direction of this impact varies between species (Mainka and Howard 2010; Bellard et al. 2013).”
IUCN SSC Invasive Species Specialist Group: invasive alien species information management supporting practitioners, policy makers and decision takers (2015, background): “The ‘100 of the World’s Worst’ List is a key publication used for both communication and scientific purposes (e.g. Bellard et al. 2013; Luque et al. 2013) and as such has contributed to S. Pagad et al. raise awareness on the impact of a selection of IAS in a number of local and global initiatives.”
Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land‐use change (2017, background): “eral types by grouping similar land uses (Bellard et al. 2013).”
Concepts for biocontrol in marine environments: is there a way forward? (2015, neutral): “The proliferation and spread of pests, including non-indigenous species, is exacerbated by climate change (Bellard et al. 2013), habitat change (Ruiz et al. 1999) and pollution (Gregory 2009).”
Global meta‐analysis of the impacts of terrestrial invertebrate invaders on species, communities and ecosystems (2016, background): “Moreover, ranges of the top invertebrate invaders are projected to increase substantially in the future with climate change and land-use change (Bellard et al., 2013).”
The 100th of the world’s worst invasive alien species (2014, background): “Biological invasions might also increase further in the future because of global environmental changes, in particular climate and land use changes (Walther et al. 2009; Bellard et al. 2013).”
Without quality presence–absence data, discrimination metrics such as TSS can be misleading measures of model performance (2018, background): “, 2014), to anticipate the spread of invasive species (Bellard et al., 2013), and also to prioritize sites for biodiversity conservation (Leroy et al.”
Barriers to globally invasive species are weakening across the Antarctic (2017, methodology): “Bellard et al. (2013) omitted the Antarctic region from their models, but patterns of habitat suitability of modelled species elsewhere across the globe were similar to the patterns of climate suitability reported here (Figs S1–S3).”
Climate change amplifies plant invasion hotspots in Nepal (2019, methodology): “At the species level, climate change causes range expansions of many invasive species and contraction to few (Bellard et al., 2013; Bradley et al., 2010).”
Four priority areas to advance invasion science in the face of rapid environmental change (2020, background): “(Bradley et al. 2009; Bellard et al. 2013; Xu et al. 2014) in the geographical range of non-native species.”