The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

By David A. Jaeger, M. D. Paserman, Iza Bonn. Social Science Research Network, 2008

216 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper studies the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict since the outbreak of the Second (or "Al-Aqsa") Intifada in September 2000, during which more than 3,300 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. The conflict has followed an uneven pattern, with periods of high levels of violence and periods of relative calm. Using data on the number of deaths occurring each day between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from Palestinian violence to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent whether we look only at the incidence of fatalities or whether we look at the level of fatalities, and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find little evidence that violence on either side has a direct deterrent or incapacitation effect. We do find, however, that successful assassination attempts do reduce the number of subsequent Israeli fatalities. We conclude that, despite the popular perception that Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in "tit-for-tat" violence, there is no evidence to support that notion.

Subfields: General Health Professions, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3bc573b508d4ad7fe84d48203cbd103254339a2a

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In General Health Professions

In Sociology and Political Science

Citations in the corpus

Competition and Financial Stability in European Cooperative Banks (2014, background): “7 competitive markets, while Jiménez et al. (2010) find opposite evidence (i.e., risk decreases as bank market power increases). Schaeck et al. (2009) analyse banks operating in 45”
Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism (2010, background): “…to the same political environment.23 The related literature focuses mostly on the peace process (Bueno de Mesquita 2005b; Kydd and Walter 2002), the timing of elections (Berrebi and Klor 2006 and 2008), and Israeli counterterrorism policies (Jaeger and Paserman 2008) as triggers of terrorism.”
Efficiency and Risk in European Banking (2011, unknown): “…tests have a number of limitations,14 this approach has been widely used to analyze inter-temporal relationships in the economic literature (e.g. Jaeger and Paserman 2008, Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach 2008, Amato and Swanson 2001 and Bajo-Rubio et al., 2001) as well as in banking studies…”
Learning The Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement (2019, unknown): “B’Tselem data on fatalities are considered to be accurate and reliable by both Israelis and Palestinians (Mansour and Rees 2012) and have previously been used by other scholars studying the Israeli–Palestinian conﬂict (e.g., Jaeger and Paserman 2008; Jaeger et al. 2012).”
Fear and the Response to Terrorism: An Economic Analysis (2011, unknown): “[24] Jaeger, David A.”