Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis

By F. Heinemann, Marc Moessinger, M. Yeter. 2015

192 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules. Based on 30 studies published in the last decade, we offer a consensus estimate with respect to the level of statistical significance, provide suggestive evidence for the effect size, and identify study features of relevance for the measured impact of fiscal rules. Overall, the results document a constraining impact of rules. However, this impact is weakened if refined identification strategies are employed. Moreover, the results provide evidence for a publication bias in which journals are more likely to report constraining and statistically significant effects compared to working papers. We further provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Political Science and International Relations

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3b4bb0f2b862402a69a3284c9e71ec6e1f970eec

Citations in the corpus

• Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability (2018, unknown): “In a meta-analysis covering 30 recent empirical studies, Heinemann, Moessinger, and Yeter (2017) conclude that even though rules have a positive average effect on the fiscal balance, more rigorous estimations considering country characteristics often fail to identify systematic differences in the…”
• Nudging for Tax Compliance: A Meta-Analysis (2019, unknown): “This easy adoption of the policy is demonstrated, for example, by Hjort et al. (2019) who inform Brazilian mayors about research on the positive tax compliance effects of reminder letters in an experimental setting and find that the treated municipalities are more likely to implement nudging interve”