Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends
By Yunus Aksoy, Henrique S. Basso, Ronald Smith, Tobias Grasl. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019
262 citations recorded by the source corpus.
We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment, and real interest rates across OECD countries. (JEL E22, E23, E32, E43, J11, J13)
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/38db849fb2fc252f24e4079d30a79dd7b66c621b
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In Economics and Econometrics
Citations in the corpus
- Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory (2019, methodology): “11Similarly, Aksoy et al. (2018) analyze the effects of demographic trends in 21 OECD countries over the period between 1970 and 2014 using a panel VAR framework.”
- Quality of government and regional resilience in the European Union. Evidence from the Great Recession (2019, background): “In addition, the empirical evidence shows that elder populations are less prone to innovation (Aksoy et al., 2015) and less productive (Lovasz and Rigo, 2013; Romeu Gordo and Skirbekk, 2013) which should have a negative effect on the”
- The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity (2016, unknown): “More recently, Aksoy et al. (2015) model the effects of demographic changes on long run economic growth accounting for endogenous fertility, education and innovation.”