Smoothing Forecasting And Prediction Of Discrete Time Series

By B. Pfeffer. 2016

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A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice (2014, methodology): “7 Bloomfield, and Cubbage (2008), Brown’s DES models outperform Holt’s model based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in forecasting tourist arrivals to US national parks. Holt-Winter’s model (the triple ES method) adds seasonal variation to Holt’s model, which captures both the seasonal patte”
Linking the continental migratory cycle of the monarch butterfly to understand its population decline (2016, methodology): “1088 Crewe and McCracken (2015) found that the fall migrant counts at the Long Point, Ontario funneling point decreased at roughly half the rate of the decline in Mexico.”
Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy (2014, background): “Brown (1963) is perhaps the first textbook that details how to apply ztransform techniques to forecasting problems. Adelson (1966) studies the dynamic behaviour of coupled forecasting and scheduling systems. More recently, Popplewell and Bonney (1987) study the structure of MRP systems with z-transf”