An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets

By Jonathan L. Bamber, W. Aspinall. 2013

335 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3581694a7a41f73f6da9a69dd63886b5d85b1556

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In Atmospheric Science

Citations in the corpus

Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 (2014, methodology): “…from the Antarctic (41 cm) and Greenland (46 cm) ice sheets simulated by process based models (Bindschadler et al 2013, Hinkel et al 2014) and published after the expert elicitation study of Bamber and Aspinall (2013) are consistent with the expert opinion of an 84 cm contribution from ice sheets.”
Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding (2018, methodology): “(2013) and the structured expert judgement of Bamber and Aspinall (2013), with ensembles of Antarctic simulations developed with a physical model, as described by DeConto and Pollard (2016). This model incorporates multiple modes of Antarctic instability involving ice shelves and ice cliffs, which l”
A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2018, methodology): “…resource management, for example, Cooke’s Classical Model (Cooke, 1991) has been applied to case studies on the Great Lakes fisheries in North America (e.g. Rothlisberger, Finnoff, Cooke, & Lodge, 2012; Wittmann et al., 2015) as well as sea- level rise and icesheet melt (Bamber & Aspinall, 2013).”
Assessing changes in global fire regimes (2023, background): “The focus was specifically on centennial-to-millennial changes in past, present and future fire regimes by biogeographic realms and biome to consider long-term processes beyond observational and instrumental records.”
Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections (2017, methodology): “This substitution allows more complex temporal dynamics than the simple assumptions of constant acceleration that underlie many expertjudgement-based projections [e.g., Bamber and Aspinall, 2013; Little et al., 2013a,b; Kopp et al., 2014].”
Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment (2016, background): “Under such circumstances, structured expert elicitation, in which the probability estimates of experts are combined based upon calibrated assessments of the experts’ reliability [Kriegler et al., 2009; Bamber and Aspinall, 2013; Oppenheimer et al., 2016], can temporarily fill in these gaps.”