Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns

By W. Walls. 2005

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Applying discrete choice models to predict Academy Award winners (2008, unknown): “In contrast with the limited previous research on predictive modelling of Oscar outcomes, there is a wealth of research on motion picture industry economics (see De Vany (2004, 2006) and Walls (2005) for surveys).”
Estimating the Effects of Movie Piracy on Box-office Revenue (2007, background): “a movie will turn out at the box office has been verified and rigorously developed as the stable Paretian hypothesis by a variety of authors ( Walls 2005; De Vany and Walls 2004b; De Vany 2004; McKenzie 2003; Lee 1999).”
The Economics of Movies: A Literature Survey (2012, methodology): “Walls (2005c) revisits the rank-revenue model of De Vany and Walls (1996) and shows that a stretched exponential (Weibull) does a better job of fitting the data than the parabolic power law originally presented using the same data described above.”