Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
By Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy Piger, Howard J. Wall. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003
229 citations recorded by the source corpus.
The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/334058ed3aa0b5d07dff0134700f1f8768977d3c
Citations in the corpus
- A multi‐level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors (2005, unknown): “Co-movement between sector- or state-level macroeconomic variables often is analyzed by means of factor models, where for example state-level output growth is decomposed into national, regional and state-specific components, see Quah (1996), Clark (1998), Forni and Reichlin (1998) and Del Negro (200”
- How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure (2016, unknown): “In this context, writing some 30 years ago, MASSEY (1984) argued that the spatial division of labour across the UK was being transformed from a regional pattern of sectoral specialization that had underpinned the industrial era of national economic development to a regional system of functional spec”
- A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics (2011, unknown): “Owyang et al. (2005) note that, for the US aggregate business cycle, states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy.”