Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

By Robert B. Barsky, Eric R. Sims. 2012

607 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/330058e14c7533f6fca09eba1a78d249fae7ef7a

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Citations in the corpus

Sufficient information in structural VARs (2014, methodology): “…forward-looking variable, aimed at capturing agents’ information about technology; stock prices have been used to identify technology shocks in Beaudry and Portier (2006); the confidence indicator, and its ability to anticipate future growth, has been extensively analyzed in Barsky and Sims (2012).”
Measuring news sentiment (2020, background): “Indeed, Barsky and Sims (2012) found that this informational component forms the main link between sentiment and future activity.”
The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty (2019, unknown): “In fact, Barsky and Sims (2012), using an analysis of the predictive content of consumer con ﬁ dence for economic activity far in the future, ﬁ nd that con ﬁ dence innovations largely re ﬂ ect genuine news about future productivity, which does not show up in current macroeconomic data.”
Measuring Geopolitical Risk (2018, methodology): “16 We use the Michigan survey 5-year ahead consumer confidence index, as used in Barsky and Sims (2012). 17 Macroeconomic exposure varies across industries but not over time, whereas trade openness and leverage vary both across industries and over time.”
Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation (2016, methodology): “A variation by Barsky and Sims (2011) identifies the technology shock as the one that maximizes the sum of the forecast error variances up to some horizon h. Several papers have questioned Galı́’s (1999) basic identifying assumption that technology shocks are the only shocks that have a long-run eff”
News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration (2013, unknown): “From equations (1)-(3) and (6) above, we obtain ct = xt|t + ρ 1− ρt|t − xt−1|t).”
Ambiguous Business Cycles (2014, methodology): “(1999) and Cagetti et al. (2002) study business cycles models with robust control preferences.”
Forecasting US Recessions: The Role of Sentiment (2014, unknown): “Barsky and Sims (2012) examine these two interpretations, but only considering consumer con dence.”
Expectations and Investment (2015, unknown): “A recent literature in macroeconomics considers expectations “shocks”, and discusses the extent to which they can contribute to economic fluctuations (Beaudry and Portier (2004); Angeletos and La’O (2009); Lorenzoni (2009); Barsky and Sims (2012); Angeletos and La’O (2013); Levchenko and Pandalai-Na”
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions (2014, unknown): “The role of innovations to consumer confidence for explaining fluctuations in U.S. economic activity has been stressed, for example, by Barsky and Sims (2012).”
Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey (2015, unknown): “Some existing work which recursively order survey data above economic variables interpret shocks associated with the survey expectations as possible news shocks (e.g. Barsky and Sims, 2012; Leduc and Sill, 2013).”
News shocks and business cycles (2011, unknown): “After estimating either a VAR in levels or a VECM, the reduced form moving average representation can be formed as in equation (4).”