Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation
By Martin Juckes, Myles Allen, Keith R. Briffa, J. Esper, Gabriele C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, Timothy J. Osborn, S. Weber. 2006
139 citations recorded by the source corpus.
There has been considerable recent interest in pa- leoclimate reconstructions of the temperature history of the last millennium. A wide variety of techniques have been used. The interrelation among the techniques is sometimes unclear, as different studies often use distinct data sources as well as distinct methodologies. Here recent work is re- viewed and some new calculations performed with an aim to clarifying the consequences of the different approaches used. A range of proxy data collections introduced by different au- thors is used to estimate Northern Hemispheric annual mean temperatures with two reconstruction algorithms: (1) inverse regression and, (2) compositing followed by variance match- ing (CVM). It is found that inverse regression tends to give large weighting to a small number of proxies and that the second approach (CVM) is more robust to varying proxy in- put. The choice of proxy records is one reason why differ- ent reconstructions show different ranges. A reconstruction using 13 proxy records extending back to AD 1000 shows a maximum pre-industrial temperature of 0.25 K (relative to the 1866 to 1970 mean). The standard error on this estimate, based on the residual in the calibration period, is 0.14 K. Instrumental temperatures for two recent years (1998 and 2005) have exceeded the pre-industrial estimated maximum by more than 4 standard deviations of the calibration period residual.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/32630db3f8acaa66f7ad54646c65a507e26b5da9
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Atmospheric Science
In Global and Planetary Change
Citations in the corpus
- Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum (2010, background): “…gives T S = 254 K = − 19 ◦ C. Raising this to Earth’s average pre-industrial temperature (taken here to be an average of estimates for 1650–1700, Juckes et al. 2007) Raising this further by a conservative estimate of the temperature anomaly rise since 1700 of (cid:6) T S = 0.8 ◦ C (with…”
- Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation (2010, methodology): “This renewed focus has led to numerous efforts employing climate “proxy” records to reconstruct climate at the hemispheric [e.g., Mann et al., 1999, 2008; Esper et al., 2002; Mann and Jones, 2003; Moberg et al., 2005; D’Arrigo et al., 2006; Juckes et al., 2007; Hegerl et al., 2007] and regional [Lut”
- Comments on “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method That Preserves Low-Frequency Variability” (2012, background): “A number of quantitative multiproxy reconstructions of global or Northern Hemispheric temperatures for the past 1000–2000 years, based on different paleotemperature records, have been published during the last 15 years (e.g., Briffa 2000; Cook et al. 2004; Crowley and Lowery 2000; D’Arrigo et al. 20”