Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments

By Jason E. Smerdon. 2012

175 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Millennium‐length, forced transient simulations with fully coupled general circulation models have become important new tools for addressing uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions targeting the Common Era (the last two millennia). These model simulations are used as test beds on which to evaluate the performance of paleoclimate reconstruction methods using controlled and systematic investigations known as pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs). Such experiments are motivated by the fact that any given real‐world reconstruction is the product of multiple uncontrolled factors, making it difficult to isolate the impact of one factor in reconstruction assessments and comparisons. PPEs have established a common experimental framework that can be systematically altered and evaluated, and thus test reconstruction methods and their dependencies. Although the translation of PPE results into real‐world implications must be done cautiously, their experimental design attributes allow researchers to test reconstruction techniques beyond what was previously possible with real‐world data alone. This review summarizes the development of PPEs and their findings over the last decade. The state of the science and its implications for global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions is also reviewed, as well as near‐term design improvements that will expand the utility of PPEs. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:63–77. doi: 10.1002/wcc.149

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3200079f7bf633b311a9690adab213d0b3fca5b1

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Citations in the corpus

A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe (2013, methodology): “These model simulations are used to derive controlled and systematic reconstruction experiments for methodological comparisons and evaluations—an approach known as pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs); see Smerdon (2012) for a review.”
Comments on “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method That Preserves Low-Frequency Variability” (2012, methodology): “more than 40 investigations based on pseudoproxy experiments [see Smerdon (2012) for a review].”
Assimilation of Time-Averaged Pseudoproxies for Climate Reconstruction (2014, methodology): “SNR values of 0.5 are considered to be consistent with real proxy noise levels (Smerdon 2012) and so we use this value throughout.”
Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width (2013, methodology): “To evaluate the skill of the Bayesian parameter estimates, we perform two so-called “pseudoproxy experiments” (PPEs) (Smerdon, 2012) using synthetically generated tree-ring width data.”