Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks

By Aowabin Rahman, Vivek Srikumar, Amanda D. Smith. 2018

676 citations recorded by the source corpus.

This paper presents a recurrent neural network model to make medium-to-long term predictions, i.e. time horizon of ⩾1 week, of electricity consumption profiles in commercial and residential buildings at one-hour resolution. Residential and commercial buildings are responsible for a significant fraction of the overall energy consumption in the U.S. With advances in sensors and smart technologies, there is a need for medium to long-term prediction of electricity consumption in residential and commercial buildings at hourly intervals to support decision making pertaining to operations, demand response strategies, and installation of distributed generation systems. The modeler may have limited access to information about building’s schedules and equipment, making data-driven machine learning models attractive. The energy consumption data that is available may also contain blocks of missing data, making time-series predictions difficult. Thus, the main objectives of this paper are: (a) Develop and optimize novel deep recurrent neural network (RNN) models aimed at medium to long term electric load prediction at one-hour resolution; (b) Analyze the relative performance of the model for different types of electricity consumption patterns; and (c) Use the deep NN to perform imputation on an electricity consumption dataset containing segments of missing values. The proposed models were used to predict hourly electricity consumption for the Public Safety Building in Salt Lake City, Utah, and for aggregated hourly electricity consumption in residential buildings in Austin, Texas. For predicting the commercial building’s load profiles, the proposed RNN sequence-to-sequence models generally correspond to lower relative error when compared with the conventional multi-layered perceptron neural network. For predicting aggregate electricity consumption in residential buildings, the proposed model generally does not provide gains in accuracy compared to the multi-layered perceptron model.

Subfields: Building and Construction, Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, Electrical and Electronic Engineering

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3058f65119ea5bd858508c7a715c476d2df5234d

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Citations in the corpus

A review of the-state-of-the-art in data-driven approaches for building energy prediction (2020, background): “For instance, Rahman et al.[146] developed two RNN models that could predict 24-h sequence of electric load with 1 hour intervals.”
Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches to energy demand-side response: A systematic review (2020, background): “[293] 2018 Deep RNNs Medium-to-long term load forecasting for DR.”
Day-ahead building-level load forecasts using deep learning vs. traditional time-series techniques (2019, background): “Authors in [31] proposed two RNN structured models for medium-to-long term predictions.”
Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches † (2018, background): “In 2018, Rahman et al. [34] proposed two RNNs for medium to long-term electric forecast for residential and commercial buildings.”
A Stacked GRU-RNN-Based Approach for Predicting Renewable Energy and Electricity Load for Smart Grid Operation (2021, background): “However, RNN has the problem of gradient vanishing, which prevents it from learning long-term dependency [21].”
A Review of Deep Learning with Special Emphasis on Architectures, Applications and Recent Trends (2019, methodology): “Rahman et al. [195] proposed two models based on the architecture of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) aiming to predict the medium and long term electricity consumption in residential and commercial buildings with one-hour resolution.”