Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
By P. Stott, N. Christidis, Friederike E. L. Otto, Ying Sun, J. Vanderlinden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, Robert Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton, Pascal Yiou and 1 more. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2015
717 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change
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Citations in the corpus
- Causes of climate change over the historical record (2019, background): “extreme events soon after they occurred (Stott et al., 2016; Stott et al., 2018), but the historical and”
- Causal discovery in heavy-tailed models (2019, background): “They consider max-linear models (Gissibl and Klüppelberg (2018)) where only the largest effect propagates to the descendants in a Bayesian network.”
- Global climate risk index 2015 : who suffers most From extreme weather events? weather-related loss events in 2013 and 1994 to 2013. (2014, background): “…Meteorological Society 2018, Herring et al. (2018), Trenberth et al. (2018), Zhang et al. (2016); Hansen et al. (2016); Haustein et al. (2016) & Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution et al. (2016); Stott et al. (2015) 4 See also the Methodological Remarks in Chapter 5.”
- Climate Change: Macroeconomic Impact and Implications for Monetary Policy (2020, background): “Moreover, the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events has been linked to global warming (see e.g. Stott 2016; Stott et al. 2016).”
- The nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of climate change (2020, background): “…might well provide needed insight into not only how such knowledge of personal experience can be strategically used (e.g., Reser & Bradley, 2017; Stott et al., 2015) but, equally importantly, how these ‘internal environment’ processes are mediating and moderating successful psychological and…”
- Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought (2020, methodology): “This basic experiment setup has been used in many pieces of recent climate research, and is a recognised part of the climate change detection and attribution literature; interested readers should see Bindoff et al. (2013), or the recent review article by Stott et al. (2016).”