Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

By L. Rahib, M. Wehner, L. Matrisian, K. Nead. JAMA Network Open, 2021

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Key Points Question How will the landscape of cancer incidences and deaths change in the next 2 decades? Findings In this cross-sectional study, the results estimate that leading cancer incidences and deaths in the US will be notably different in the year 2040 compared with current rankings. Estimates included increases in melanoma incidence, pancreatic cancer deaths, and liver cancer deaths, and decreases in prostate cancer incidence and breast cancer deaths. Meaning These estimates will be important to guide research, health care, and health policy efforts and emphasize the importance of cancer screening, early detection, and prevention.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Oncology

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