Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands

By C. Bren d’Amour, F. Reitsma, G. Baiocchi, Stephan Barthel, Burak Güneralp, K. Erb, H. Haberl, Felix Creutzig, Karen C. Seto. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016

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Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales (2017, background): “Mediterranean France is more sensitive to drought while the northern part results to be more sensitive to water excess (consistently with Ceglar et al 2016).”
Rural water for thirsty cities: a systematic review of water reallocation from rural to urban regions (2019, background): “A 3.2% reduction in cropland is projected to occur due to urbanization by 2030, with local extremes as high as 30% or higher (D’Amour et al 2017).”
Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050 (2019, background): “…encourage urban expansion should depend onwhether the municipalities can effectively handle the consequences of expansion, such as loss of farmland (d’Amour et al 2017) and habitat (Seto et al 2012), increase in resource consumption (Liu et al 2003, Broto et al 2012), and warming of regional…”
Agricultural intensification, dietary diversity, and markets in the global food security narrative (2019, background): “In this view, increases in labor and land productivity resulting from intensification (Collier and Dercon, 2009) are seen as part of a transitional stage towards a nonagrarian urbanised economy (d’Amour et al., 2017; Dorward et al., 2004).”