A Bivariate Time Series Approach to Anthropogenic Trend Detection in Hemispheric Mean Temperatures

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Comment on ''Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system'' by S. E. Schwartz (2008, background): “For such a short time series the detection threshold is about '±0.2, which makes the null hypothesis rather hard to refute conclusively, but there is still strong evidence that a higher-order model is more appropriate [e.g., Smith et al., 2003].”
A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi‐model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models (2006, methodology): “In this respect, Smith et al. [2003] evaluated various regression models for hemispheric temperature changes by comparing the Bayes factor of one best model to the others.”