Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40, 90, or 100 Percent of Performance?

By Roger G. Ibbotson, P. Kaplan. 2000

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Asset allocation and portfolio performance: Evidence from university endowment funds (2010, methodology): “14 Following the methodology of Ibbotson and Kaplan (2000) we quantify the degree to which asset allocation contributes to return variability over time, by regressing the time series of total annual returns of each fund i on each of the three return components, i.”
Portfolio Theory: As I Still See It (2010, methodology): “It often uses a top-down approach pioneered by Brinson and colleagues (see Brinson et al. 1986, 1991; Ibbotson & Kaplan 2000; Statman 2000).”
How Should Individual Investors Diversify? An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Asset Allocation Policies (2014, background): “The failure of diversifying adequately over asset classes must be considered as particularly problematic as asset allocation has been shown to be the main determinant of portfolio performance (e.g., Brinson et al., 1986; Ibbotson and Kaplan, 2000).”