Principles and interest of GOF tests for multistate capture-recapture models

By R. Pradel, Olivier Gimenez, J. Lebreton. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 2005

196 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Optimal goodness–of–fit procedures for multistate models are new. Drawing a parallel with the corresponding single–state procedures, we present their singularities and show how the overall test can be decomposed into interpretable components. All theoretical developments are illustrated with an application to the now classical study of movements of Canada geese between wintering sites. Through this application, we exemplify how the interpretable components give insight into the data, leading eventually to the choice of an appropriate general model but also sometimes to the invalidation of the multistate models as a whole. The method for computing a corrective overdispersion factor is then mentioned. We also take the opportunity to try to demystify some statistical notions like that of Minimal Sufficient Statistics by introducing them intuitively. We conclude that these tests should be considered an important part of the analysis itself, contributing in ways that the parametric modelling cannot always do to the understanding of the data.

Subfields: Ecology, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/23210395bd1549e71a3c254d2ab2ee7f39e6107a

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Citations in the corpus

Chapter 3 Modeling Individual Animal Histories with Multistate Capture–Recapture Models (2009, methodology): “An alternative model, The JMV model, introduced by Brownie et al. (1993), is in this context a useful generalization of the CAS model since efficient Goodness‐of‐fit (GOF) procedures have recently been developed for this model (Pradel et al., 2003, 2005).”
Group size and ectoparasitism affect daily survival probability in a colonial bird (2004, background): “This subset of tests can incorporate age-dependence in determining goodness-of-fit (Pradel et al. 2005).”
Maximizing re-introduction success: Assessing the immediate cost of release in a threatened waterfowl (2009, background): “This would suggest that individuals differ in capture and/ or survival probability (Pradel et al., 2005).”