ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates

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Constraints to projecting the effects of climate change on mammals (2006, background): “For example, a regression model between annual changes in population abundance and dry season rainfall has projected near extirpation of 3 ungulate species from South Africa’s Kruger National Park, should the 1977–1996 climatic conditions recur (Ogutu & Owen-Smith 2003).”
Strategic management of livestock to improve biodiversity conservation in African savannahs: a conceptual basis for wildlife-livestock coexistence (2016, background): “…may be especially critical under predicted increased spatial and temporal variability of rainfall with climate change (Ogutu & Owen-Smith 2003), which will require greater spatial adaptive foraging options for herbivore populations to persist (Ogutu & Owen-Smith 2003; Fryxell et al. 2005).”
Savanna herbivore dynamics in a livestock-dominated landscape. II: Ecological, conservation, and management implications of predator restoration (2007, background): “In that case, declines were ascribed to a prolonged period of low rainfall, and associated vegetation changes (Owen-Smith and Ogutu, 2003; Ogutu and Owen-Smith, 2003; Dunham et al., 2004), as well as to increasing predation, due indirectly to the installation of wells in drier areas (Harrington et…”